The year started off quite interesting for me as I engaged in most of the activities I wanted to pursue. However, I’ve noticed many individuals who are extremely agitated, pursuing their goals with full force while failing to recognize that they need fuel for the entire year. What I’m trying to convey is that I’m incredibly slow and patient, waiting for the paint to dry so I can see the actual color of the wall. I’ve come to realize that I don’t have the ability to repaint the wall daily in the hope of finding the color I once believed I wanted. As a result, I haven’t made many changes to my portfolio, which returned 3.28% in January.
Since 2025 began, I’ve realized that, along with the usual market volatility, the new U.S. President will bring even more disruption due to the policies being implemented. While I have no intention of discussing politics, I can clearly express that I’m unhappy with what I’m witnessing. I see excess in many areas; I see people chasing money as if there’s no tomorrow, despite their values and beliefs. I also see significant discrepancies in mindsets across countries, even though we’re all in the same storm and on the same ship. All these things have made me even more cautious. Some would say that I’m actually anxious.
I observe companies adjusting their strategies simply because of a change in the U.S. President or in anticipation of policies that could benefit their business. I don’t like this approach. Companies should pivot based on customer needs, not because they can profit from the political environment. In these instances, I can confidently assert that many of these companies are not as valuable as I once believed, primarily because of their incentives.
My allocation didn’t change during this month.
In January 2025, China's public markets experienced significant developments driven by policy shifts, foreign investor sentiment, and structural reforms. Below is an highlight of the most impactful positive changes and potential risks based on available information:
The Chinese government signaled a major shift in macroeconomic policy, transitioning from a "prudent monetary policy" to a "moderately loose" stance and upgrading fiscal policy to "more proactive." These adjustments aim to stabilize growth through measures like interest rate reductions and increased fiscal spending, particularly in critical sectors such as infrastructure and social welfare.
The "1+N" policy system and enhanced regulatory frameworks for capital markets were emphasized to improve transparency and risk management, which should improve investor confidence.
Foreign institutions increased their holdings of RMB assets. In January, firms like Fidelity International and Neuberger Berman expanded their operations in China, launching new funds and increasing registered capital, reflecting confidence in A-share market prospects.
Measures were implemented to stabilize the real estate sector, reducing home purchase restrictions, lowering credit costs, and promoting urban renewal projects. These policies aimed to address housing demand while transitioning to a "new development model" for the property market.
Foreign institutions highlighted China’s market appeal due to reasonable valuations and policy tools. Goldman Sachs forecasted a 20% rise in the MSCI China Index by year-end 2025, driven by earnings recovery.
In simple words, this is a period of cautious optimism for China’s public markets, driven by proactive policy support and foreign capital inflows.
It’s crucial to remain patient and observant. Markets will continue to fluctuate, and geopolitical events will undoubtedly impact my investments. However, staying informed and maintaining a balanced perspective can help me make better decisions.
Sometimes, My best strategy is to wait for the dust to settle before making any significant moves while enjoying the beauty of life.
Thank you for reading, and I look forward to sharing more insights with you as the year progresses!