<![CDATA[Chop Wood, Carry Water]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kGlx!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd03217e0-a757-4cc1-8afa-9cc741840b28_1024x1024.pngChop Wood, Carry Waterhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.comSubstackSun, 19 Apr 2026 05:01:02 GMT<![CDATA[Portfolio Update]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-7b8https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-7b8Mon, 13 Apr 2026 09:29:30 GMTMarch was the hardest month so far. Not because of the numbers, though they are not pretty, but because of what happens outside the portfolio. I am starting to feel the pressure of being unemployed, as life shifts in a meaningful way. I am building a side hustle to generate cash flow, but for now, every red day arrives without the psychological cushion of a salary.

And yet, no panic.

My combined portfolio ends the month down, with a time-weighted return of -2.5% for March. Year-to-date, I am roughly break-even. On paper, that is stability. In practice, it feels like treading water in a storm.

The theme of March, for me and likely for many paying attention, is the same: the cost of reacting to noise.

The market swings on headlines. Everybody is trading news, tariffs, wars, geopolitics, press conferences. Every week brings a new reason to act. I choose to do almost nothing. Because I am honest enough to admit that I do not have the high-conviction ideas and acting without conviction is more dangerous than the patience I am practicing.

Market Overview

When the noise becomes the news

March ended in a broad selloff driven by a geopolitical shock: an escalation in the US–Iran conflict. Oil surged, inflation concerns resurfaced, yields moved higher, and equities sold off in a correlated move.

Major US benchmarks declined roughly 4.5% to 6%. There was little diversification benefit, growth and value fell together, as did large- and small-cap stocks. Moments like this are a reminder that geopolitical shocks do not respect portfolio construction.

So, 2026 has started with job losses, rising energy prices, and increasing uncertainty. The US market is not broken, but it is volatile, expensive, and now dealing with an energy shock on top of existing macro pressure. This is not a time to be a hero.

China is still uncomfortable

China does not have a good March either. Beijing sets its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%, the lowest since it began publishing such figures in the early 1990s. Premier Li Qiang describes the current environment as “grave and complex,” citing intertwined external shocks, domestic challenges, and difficult policy choices.

My two largest Chinese positions move in opposite directions. Alibaba drops as the market continues to punish anything connected to Chinese consumer spending. JD, meanwhile, gains a bit, quietly but still extremely cheap.

My thesis on China has not changed. The businesses are real, the cash is real, and the pessimism is overdone. March does nothing to alter that view.

United Kingdom just hangs

The UK market is caught in the crossfire of rising oil prices. For most companies, higher energy costs are a headwind. For energy-heavy indices like the FTSE 100, they can be a tailwind.

The index held up better than some global peers as a result. My two UK holdings told different stories. WINE posted modest gains, while MOTR declined sharply without a clear company-specific reason. Most likely, the UK used-car market is highly sensitive to shifts in consumer confidence.

Portfolio Performance

March was a down month, the second losing month in a row. The overall portfolio dropped by a noticeable amount, but that drop was entirely on paper. No positions were sold. No real losses were taken.

One account lost a significant amount, while the other stayed nearly flat, gaining just a few dollars from interest.

My energy holdings were the only notable positive contributors, benefiting from the oil price spike.

What actually happened this month

First, I added a small number of shares to company. It had just reported strong results, and the market rewarded it briefly. I bought on that strength. The business still looks solid and is trading at a price that seems too pessimistic. But I’ll be honest, this stock is volatile, and while the business earns my confidence, the ups and downs can test your patience.

Second, I added to $PLX.PA the global employee benefits company. The business has been punished over concerns about new Brazilian regulations. I think the market is overreacting. The regulation matters, but not as much as people fear. The business is resilient, and the entry price looks attractive.

Cash barely changed this month. A small purchase, a few dividend payments, some interest earned, and minor taxes withheld, all small flows that left the big picture unchanged.

A large portion of the portfolio remains in cash. and it is a reflection of reality: I am not finding enough opportunities that meet my bar for conviction. I prefer to sit with that discomfort rather than force decisions.

Value Perspective

March feels like a live demonstration of what Benjamin Graham describes as Mr. Market, an emotional partner who shows up every day with a new price and a new mood.

This month, Mr. Market panicked. War, oil spikes, tariff noise, and broad selling pressure pushed prices down across the board.

The correct response, the one Graham prescribes and Pabrai practices, is to take the offer only when the price is genuinely below intrinsic value, and to ignore it otherwise. I bought a little more . Same with Pluxee. I holded everything else. I do not sell Alibaba at $125 because the market is frightened. I do not sell Prosus because it drops with the broader China narrative. The businesses have not changed. The prices have.

What I notice this month, with some discomfort, is that the high-conviction moments come less easily than they once did. In the early years of this journal, ideas arrived with more clarity. Now I sit with more uncertainty, more cash, and more patience, not because I am wiser, but because I am honest enough to admit when the picture is not clear. That honesty is worth more than a forced trade.

Closing Remarks

Being unemployed while watching a portfolio fluctuate is not comfortable. But being roughly break-even for the year is an outcome I can accept.

The goal remains unchanged: to preserve and grow purchasing power above inflation over multi-year periods. One or two difficult months are not a deviation from that goal., they are part of the process.

The side hustle underway is not a distraction from investing, it is the foundation and perhaps I’ll talk about it at some point.

The investor I am building is still under construction. March confirms there is more to build.

]]><![CDATA[The Making of a Value Investor by Gautam Baid]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-making-of-a-value-investor-byhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-making-of-a-value-investor-bySun, 22 Mar 2026 09:26:34 GMTIf Baid’s previous work provided the framework, this volume provides the unvarnished reality of “carrying water” during a crisis. Through recorded journal entries from a brutal bear market, Baid charts the psychological evolution required to survive a “bloodbath” in small and mid-cap stocks. He reveals that a sudden crash is the ultimate “ego-leveler”, forcing an investor to return to fundamental truths about management integrity and business durability.

Remark for Subscribers: The “Chop Wood Carry Water” spirit is not about a single grand trade, but about the integrity of the research process and the management of emotional stress. As you build your library, remember: greatness comes from falling in love with the mundane, daily grind of learning.

]]><![CDATA[Portfolio Update]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-e7ahttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-e7aMon, 16 Mar 2026 11:54:10 GMTFebruary ends the way it begins, quietly. No closed positions. No dramatic pivots. Just two deliberate moves that say more about conviction than activity. My combined portfolio (IBKR + eToro) finishes the month largely flat, with IBKR registering a time-weighted return of -1.74%.

The numbers are manageable. My internal weather is less settled.

This month surfaces two honest tensions I carry as an investor. The first is a large and growing cash position that feels both correct and uncomfortable. In a market like this, sitting on nearly 40% in cash requires a certain tolerance for the doubt that comes with inaction and sometimes I wonder whether I am being disciplined or simply frozen. The second is a position in $ATG that is underwater and stays that way. I understand my mistake. I understand the rational move. And yet I hold. I am aware of it. I am working on it.

These are not market problems. They are behavioral ones. Naming them here is part of the discipline.

Market Overview

The Expensive Party Slows Down

For years, a handful of giant tech companies carry the entire US market on their backs. In February, that starts to change. The Nasdaq 100, home to most of the big tech names drops 2.3%, while smaller, more “boring” companies quietly gain 3-4%. The rotation is a signal worth watching: when the most crowded trade starts losing steam, money has to go somewhere.

The broader economy is still healthy, people are working, spending, and businesses are growing. But US stocks, in aggregate, remain expensive by most historical measures. There is not much room for error priced in.

The wildcard is trade policy. The US government introduces new tariffs, removes them, then introduces different ones all within the same month. Nobody, including large corporations, can plan with confidence in that environment. Uncertainty is a tax on growth, even when the economy itself holds up.

AI capex spending is creating a self-reinforcing loop between suppliers and customers, with capital circulating between a few interconnected companies rather than being driven by broad external demand. Nothing says 'wise investment of nearly $690 billion' quite like using that immense computational power to generate videos like this one:

China is cheap for a Reason

China’s economy faces real headwinds, a weak property market, cautious consumers, and an ongoing trade dispute with the US. The government sets its 2026 growth target at 4.5%, the most modest target it has published in decades, and openly acknowledges a “grave and complex” environment.

At the company level, the three names I hold , and Tencent via $PRX are in the middle of a brutal price war for online market share. They are spending heavily to compete, which hurts short-term profits. JD.com’s latest results show revenue barely growing while marketing costs jump over 50%.

And yet, the stocks are remarkably cheap. These are real businesses generating real cash, trading at prices that assume things will stay bad indefinitely. I do not believe they will.

The bottom line is that China is uncomfortable right now. That discomfort is largely why the opportunity exists.

United Kingdom is resilient

The FTSE 100 hits an all-time high in February, gaining nearly 7% for the month, its strongest run in over a decade.

My UK holdings $MOTR (Motorpoint) and $WINE (Naked Wines) are small positions in a market largely ignored by global capital. This seems to be another mixed year for the UK economy.

Both MOTR and WINE post modest gains this month. Neither is a macro bet, they are stock-specific theses waiting for patient resolution. But domestic consumption headwinds, sterling weakness, and limited institutional interest in smaller UK names is a massive headwind.

Portfolio Performance

February was a quiet month. No positions are closed, no big bets are made, and the portfolio finishes almost exactly where it starts. The IBKR account, which holds the bulk of my investments, registers a time-weighted return of -1.74%. To put that in perspective: if I had $100 invested, I end the month with $98.26. Not dramatic, but worth understanding what drives it.

Two positions are responsible for most of the paper loss. drops meaningfully this month, costing me ~$8k on paper. Prosus, the European tech holding company with heavy exposure to China follows suit, down another ~$4k. Both are caught in the same wave. Investors remain nervous about Chinese consumer companies, and short-term earnings disappoint as these businesses spend aggressively to compete with each other.

On the other side, two smaller positions quietly do their job. , same as provided a partial cushion while everything else waits.

The eToro account tells a simpler story. No stocks move significantly, the only gain is in interest earned on the cash balance sitting idle. Small, but it is money working while I think.

What Actually Happens This Month

Two trades. That is it.

I trim $ARA. I sell a portion of my Mexican homebuilder position across two separate days, reducing the holding. The business is still cheap, I genuinely believe that. But cheap and going-nowhere for a long time is its own kind of problem. That capital earns more working elsewhere, so I redirect it.

I add to . I buy more JD.com shares across both accounts. JD is the clearest opportunity I see right now in what I own already. A profitable business, a growing logistics network, strong cash reserves, and a stock price that assumes the worst. I am happy to buy more of that at current prices.

The most important number in my portfolio right now is not a stock it is the sitting in cash, which represents nearly 40% of the IBKR account.

As i said it previously, that is a deliberate choice. In a market where most assets are either fairly priced or expensive, holding cash is not a failure, it is preparation. Every month that cash earns interest while I wait for the right opportunity to appear at the right price. When it does, I am ready to act.

Value Perspective

The ARA decision is really a lesson in something Benjamin Graham calls the difference between an investment and a speculation on timing. A stock can be cheap for a very long time. Value without a catalyst is just waiting and waiting has a price.

Patience is where the money is made. But the key word is which patience. Waiting on the right business is a virtue. Waiting on a business that has no mechanism to close the gap between price and value is not patience. It is stubbornness dressed up in value-investing language. I trim ARA not because the thesis is wrong, but because I find a better use of capital and have the discipline to act on that judgment.

That same discipline, however, has not yet been applied to $ATG. The position is underwater. I understand my mistake. And yet I hold, not out of conviction, but out of an inability to close the loop. This is the behavioral edge I am still building. Charlie Munger is direct about this: inversion is everything. Ask not how to be a good investor, ask what a bad investor does, and stop doing it. Holding a known mistake because selling feels like admitting defeat is precisely what a bad investor does and I did it.

“The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

Closing Remarks

My long-term objective is simple, preserve and grow real purchasing power above Romanian inflation over rolling five-year periods. That goal requires no heroics. It requires patience, discipline, and the occasional honest reckoning with my own blind spots.

February is a month of small steps in the right direction. I trim where opportunity cost outweighs the thesis. I add where conviction is high and price is low. I sit on cash where the market does not offer the margin of safety my strategy demands.

The investor I am at the end of 2026 is better than the one writing these words today, not because markets are kind, but because the behavioral work continues.

]]><![CDATA[Don't Believe Everything You Think by Joseph Nguyen]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/dont-believe-everything-you-thinkhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/dont-believe-everything-you-thinkTue, 10 Mar 2026 20:53:47 GMTNguyen offers a radical solution to psychological suffering by distinguishing between “thoughts” (mental energy) and “thinking” (the active engagement with those thoughts). While thoughts are unavoidable, emotional suffering is a choice fueled by our interpretation and reactions to them. By cultivating a state of “non-thinking,” we can tap into intuition and find peak performance in a state of flow.

]]><![CDATA[Ergodicity by Luca Dellanna]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/ergodicity-by-luca-dellannahttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/ergodicity-by-luca-dellannaTue, 10 Mar 2026 20:49:28 GMTIn a non-ergodic world, the average outcome of a crowd does not predict the long-term outcome of an individual. Dellanna explains that “maximizing expected value” is a dangerous myth if the activity involves a “game-over” risk—such as bankruptcy, career-ending injury, or total burnout. In any repeated practice, irreversibility “absorbs” all future gains, meaning performance is always subordinate to survival.

]]><![CDATA[The Psychology of Human Misjudgment by Charles T. Munger]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-human-misjudgmenthttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-human-misjudgmentMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:36:22 GMTIn this famous talk (found within Poor Charlie’s Almanack), Munger identifies twenty-five psychological tendencies, like Social Proof and Authority Bias, that lead to irrational behavior. He warns of the “Lollapalooza Effect,” where multiple biases act in the same direction to create extreme market manias.

]]><![CDATA[The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-tipping-point-by-malcolm-gladwellhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-tipping-point-by-malcolm-gladwellMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:32:35 GMTGladwell explores the “magic moment” when an idea or social behavior crosses a threshold and spreads like an epidemic. He identifies the roles of “Connectors, Mavens, and Salesmen” in creating massive, non-linear change.

]]><![CDATA[The Joys of Compounding by Gautam Baid]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-joys-of-compounding-by-gautamhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-joys-of-compounding-by-gautamMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:31:31 GMT argues that compounding is a “transformative principle” for life, not just money. He advocates for becoming a “learning machine” through voracious reading and active reflection, noting that the best investment you can make is in yourself.

]]><![CDATA[Common Sense: The Investor's Guide to Equality, Opportunity, and Growth by Joel Greenblatt]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/common-sense-the-investors-guidehttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/common-sense-the-investors-guideMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:29:54 GMTGreenblatt applies “Moneyball-like analytics” to solve systemic societal problems. He proposes “roundabout” solutions like expanding high-performing charter schools and certification programs to disrupt education inequality and guarantee a living wage via an expanded EITC.

]]><![CDATA[Outsmarting the Crowd by Bogumil K. Baranowski ]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/outsmarting-the-crowd-by-bogumilhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/outsmarting-the-crowd-by-bogumilMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:27:33 GMT emphasizes that you have control over only three things: Price, Patience, and Investment Horizon. By accepting uncertainty and focusing on “imprecise assumptions” that provide a margin of safety, you can outperform those trying to play a “predictive” game.

]]><![CDATA[You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/you-can-be-a-stock-market-geniushttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/you-can-be-a-stock-market-geniusMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:25:22 GMTGreenblatt shows how to find “genie-like” returns in corners of the market Wall Street ignores—corporate spinoffs, restructurings, and rights offerings. He argues that the individual investor has a massive advantage in these “special situations” where mandates force institutional selling.

]]><![CDATA[One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/one-up-on-wall-street-by-peter-lynchhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/one-up-on-wall-street-by-peter-lynchMon, 02 Mar 2026 12:24:09 GMTLynch argues that individual investors have a distinct advantage over institutional “stock hounds” because they interact with products daily. By observing local trends, a layperson can identify “ten-baggers” long before Wall Street takes notice.

]]><![CDATA[The Big Secret for the Small Investor by Joel Greenblatt]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-big-secret-for-the-small-investorhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-big-secret-for-the-small-investorMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:59:29 GMTGreenblatt addresses the flaws in traditional index funds and introduces a “value-weighted” approach. He argues that while value investing works brilliantly long-term, it often fails short-term, which is precisely why most people abandon it right before it succeeds.

]]><![CDATA[The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck by Mark Manson]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-subtle-art-of-not-giving-a-fckhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-subtle-art-of-not-giving-a-fckMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:57:50 GMTManson’s core principle, caring only about things that align with your personal values is a perfect metaphor for the investor’s “circle of competence.” He teaches the “Law of Avoidance,” noting that growth is an iterative process of becoming “slightly less wrong” each day.

]]><![CDATA[Homo Deus by Yuval Noah Harari]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/homo-deus-by-yuval-noah-hararihttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/homo-deus-by-yuval-noah-harariMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:56:31 GMTHarari explores the potential for humanity to pursue “godlike” powers through bioengineering and AI. He warns that the authority for decision-making could shift from human feelings to algorithms that know us better than we know ourselves.

]]><![CDATA[The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-money-by-morganhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-money-by-morganMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:54:59 GMTHousel argues that financial success is a “soft skill” where behavior is more critical than technical knowledge. He contrasts the success of a secretary who amassed $7 million through simple compounding with a high-powered executive who declared bankruptcy.

]]><![CDATA[Uplifting Service by Ron Kaufman]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/uplifting-service-by-ron-kaufmanhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/uplifting-service-by-ron-kaufmanMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:53:38 GMTAs AI commoditizes products, “service” remains the final frontier of competitive advantage. Kaufman identifies how organizations can build a sustainable “service culture” that delights customers and enhances workplace dynamics.

]]><![CDATA[Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/life-30-by-max-tegmarkhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/life-30-by-max-tegmarkMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:51:41 GMTMax Tegmark explores the emergence of artificial intelligence as “Life 3.0”, a form of life capable of designing both its hardware and software. He warns that an “intelligence explosion” could redefine our species and the nature of intelligence itself.

]]><![CDATA[The Investment Checklist by Michael Shearn]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-investment-checklist-by-michaelhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-investment-checklist-by-michaelMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:41:15 GMTShearn provides a systematic research framework designed to minimize emotional errors. The checklist forces you to evaluate a business from the perspective of its CEO, customers, and competitors before putting a single dollar at risk.

]]><![CDATA[The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham]]>https://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-intelligent-investor-by-benjaminhttps://thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/p/the-intelligent-investor-by-benjaminMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:40:06 GMTThe foundational text of value investing, Graham introduces the “Mr. Market” allegory, the erratic partner who offers you a different price every day based on his emotions.

The “intelligent investor” is a realist who ignores market mood swings and focuses on the “Margin of Safety.”

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